Hei rauemi mata mō te hanga polyester, ko te piki me te heke o te utu o te hinu mata te mea e whakatau tika ana i te utu o te polyester. I roto i ngā tau e toru kua pahure ake nei, ko ngā pakanga ā-rohe tētahi o ngā mea tino nui e pā ana ki ngā utu hinu o te ao. Nō nā tata nei, kua huri te āhua o te pakanga i waenganui i a Rūhia me Ukraine, ā, e matapaetia ana ka hoki mai te hinu mata o Rūhia ki te mākete o te ao, he pānga nui tēnei ki ngā utu hinu o te ao!
Ka heke te hinu ki te $60?
E ai ki ngā pūrongo o mua a CCTV, i te 12 o Pēpuere, te Wā ki te Rawhiti o Amerika, i waea atu a Perehitini Trump o Amerika ki a Perehitini o Rūhia, a Vladimir Putin, me te Perehitini o Ukraine, a Volodymyr Zelensky. I whakaae ngā taha e rua ki te "mahi tahi tata" ki te whakamutu i te pakanga i waenganui i a Rūhia me Ukraine, me te tuku i ā rātou tīma ki te "tīmata tonu i ngā whiriwhiringa."
I roto i tētahi pūrongo o te 13 o Pēpuere, i kī a Citi kei te mahi te whakahaere a Trump i tētahi mahere hohou rongo hei whakatau i te pakanga i waenganui i a Rūhia me Ukraine. Tērā pea kei roto i te mahere te akiaki i a Rūhia me Ukraine kia tae ki tētahi whakaaetanga whakamutu ahi i mua i te 20 o Paenga-whāwhā, 2025. Mēnā ka angitu, ka ārahi pea te mahere ki te tango i ētahi whiu ki a Rūhia, me te whakarerekē i ngā āhuatanga tuku me te tono o te mākete hinu o te ao.
Kua tino rerekē te rere o te hinu Rūhia mai i te tīmatanga o te pakanga. E ai ki ngā whakatau tata a Citi, kua tata ki te 70 piriona tāne o te maero tāne kua tāpirihia e te hinu Rūhia. I taua wā anō, i tino whakapiki ake ētahi atu whenua pērā i a Īnia i tā rātou tono mō te hinu Rūhia, ā, i piki ake mā te 800,000 oko ia rā me te 2 miriona oko ia rā.
Ki te whakamāmā ngā whenua o te Hauāuru i ngā whiu ki a Rūhia, ā, ka whakapau kaha ki te whakatikatika i ngā whanaungatanga tauhokohoko, ka nui ake pea te pikinga o te hanga hinu me ngā kaweake a Rūhia. Ka huri anō tēnei i te tauira o te tuku hinu o te ao.
I te taha tuku, kua mahue iho i ngā whiu a te Hononga o Amerika i te moana te tata ki te 30 miriona oko hinu o Rūhia.
E whakapono ana a Citi, ki te ahu whakamua te mahere hohou rongo, ka tukuna pea tēnei hinu kua mauheretia me te toenga o te hinu nā te huringa o ngā ara hokohoko (tata ki te 150-200 miriona oko) ki te mākete, ka piki ake te pēhanga o te tuku.
Nā reira, ka tata ki te $60 me te $65 te utu o te hinu Brent mō te oko i te haurua tuarua o te tau 2025.
Kei te pehia e ngā kaupapa here a Trump ngā utu hinu ki raro
Haunga te āhuatanga o Rūhia, ko Trump tētahi o ngā mea e pēhia ana ngā utu hinu ki raro.
I whakaatuhia i roto i tētahi rangahau a Haynes Boone LLC i te mutunga o te tau kua hipa ki ngā kaimahi peeke e 26 e tūmanakohia ana ka heke ngā utu o te WTI ki te $58.62 te oko i te tau 2027, tata ki te $10 te oko i raro iho i ngā taumata o nāianei, e kī ana kei te whakarite ngā peeke mō te hekenga o ngā utu ki raro iho i te $60 i waenganui o te wā hou o Trump. I whakatairanga a Trump i runga i te kupu whakaari ki te akiaki i ngā kaihanga hinu shale ki te whakanui ake i te whakaputanga, engari kāore i te mārama mēnā kei te hiahia ia ki te whakatutuki i taua kupu whakaari nā te mea he kamupene motuhake ngā kaihanga hinu o Amerika e whakatau ana i ngā taumata whakaputanga i runga i te ōhanga.
E hiahia ana a Trump ki te whakahaere i te pikinga utu ā-rohe o Amerika mā te pehi i ngā utu hinu, e ai ki te whakatau a Citi mēnā ka heke ngā utu hinu mata o Brent ki te $60/peera i te hauwhā tuawhā o te tau 2025 (ko ngā utu hinu mata o WTI he $57/peera), ā, ka noho tonu ngā utu mō ngā hua hinu ki ngā taumata o nāianei, ka heke te utu mō te kai hinu o Amerika tata ki te $85 piriona ia tau. Koia te 0.3 ōrau o te GDP o Amerika.
He aha te pānga ki te mākete kakahu?
Ko te wā whakamutunga i heke ai te utu hinu mata o Niu Ioka (WTI) i raro i te $60 i te 29 o Poutū-te-rangi, 2021, i te wā i heke ai te utu hinu mata o Niu Ioka ki te $59.60 ia oko. I taua wā, ko te utu hinu mata o Brent i hokohokohia i te $63.14 ia oko i taua rā. I taua wā, ko te POY polyester he tata ki te 7510 yuan/tana, he teitei ake i te 7350 yuan/tana o nāianei.
Heoi, i taua wā, i roto i te mekameka ahumahi polyester, ko PX tonu te mea nui rawa atu, i mau tonu te kaha o te utu, ā, i nohoia e ia te nuinga o ngā hua o te mekameka ahumahi, ā, kua rerekē haere te āhua o nāianei.
Mai i te tirohanga rerekētanga anake, i te 14 o Pēpuere, i kati te kirimana hinu mata o Niu Ioka 03 i te 70.74 yuan/tēne, ki te hiahia ia ki te heke ki te 60 tāra, he rerekētanga kei te 10 tāra pea.
Ahakoa kua piki ake te utu o te miro polyester i muri i te tīmatanga o tēnei puna, kei te whānui tonu te hihiri o ngā umanga raranga ki te hoko rauemi mata, kāore anō kia whakaohokia, ā, kei te mau tonu te hinengaro tatari-me-te-tiro, ā, kei te piki haere tonu te nui o ngā taonga polyester.
Ki te uru te hinu mata ki te ara heke, ka nui ake te kaha o ngā tumanakohanga heke o te mākete mō ngā rauemi mata, ā, ka piki haere tonu ngā taonga polyester. Heoi, i tētahi atu taha, kei te haere mai te wā kakahu i te marama o Poutū-te-rangi, kua piki ake te maha o ngā ota, ā, he kaha te tono mō ngā rauemi mata, ka taea pea te whakakore i te pānga o te iti o te hinu mata ki tētahi taumata.
Te wā tuku: 25-Pepuere-2025